Following the Seanad elections

July 25th, 2007 | by Andrew Ó Baoill |

Fascinating stuff for anyone interested in following the Seanad elections at the moment. The people counting the vocational panels – those 43 seats elected by public representatives – are posting regular Excel sheets with updates of each round of counting. Not regular enough for some of the contributors at politics.ie but that’s addiction for you. Once again I must compliment those associated with the Office of the Houses of the Oireachtas – for I presume it is they who are responsible – on their effective and useful web tools. Those who’ve used the live web feeds of Dáil or Seanad sessions know what I’m talking about here.

The Excel – notwithstanding the omission of party allegiances, but sure those are available over at ElectionsIreland – provides a wealth of detail for anyone looking to analyze voting patterns and hone skills on predicting results hours (or days) before candidates are eliminated and their votes distributed. So far my early predictions are somewhat out – with FF rather than FG dropping a seat to Labour on the Labour panel – but close enough for me to be somewhat pleased with myself.

Over at the University counts things are a bit different, and there’s no live updating, though politics.ie contributors are doing their best. Most people will have seen that Ivana Bacik’s likely to take a seat on the TCD panel (replacing the retiring Mary Henry, who has endorsed her) but there’s less reportage of the NUI count, but that’s where the excitement and nail-biting is.

As I write counting has ended for the evening, and will recommence tomorrow with a recount – called by Bresnihan as she was on the brink of being eliminated. Bresnihan was just behind Ryan (with whom she had been trading places through the various rounds of counting) and a change of ranking would see the sitting Labour senator lose his seat.

Should things stay as they are, Bresnihan’s votes are likely to bring sitting senator Joe O’Toole over the quota – at present he’s 750 short of the 8,900 quota – but it’s the distribution of the rest that’s going to be important. As this post makes clear, given a 50% split of transfers to Ryan, he takes a seat at the expense of the third sitting Senator, Fergal Quinn (if Quinn gets 28% of transfers). However, a 49% split to Ryan (with 30% to Quinn) would see Quinn hold off Ryan. Still in the mix also, for the third seat, is social conservative Rónán Mullen.

All to play for in the morning.

  1. 2 Responses to “Following the Seanad elections”

  2. By Daithí on Jul 25, 2007 | Reply

    I don’t think the Oireachtas staff *could* put party allegiances on their count sheets – formally party designations don’t appear on Seanad papers, as far as I recall, as nominations come from members of the Oireachtas (in their individual capacities) or prescribed organisations and nomination forms contain no section for party allegiance….

  3. By Andrew Ó Baoill on Jul 26, 2007 | Reply

    I figured that was the case – particularly in light of the discussion on the politics.ie lists about the nomination of michael McCarthy, who was an outgoing Labour senator (from an ‘inside’ sub-panel) nominated by ICTU. Thanks for the confirmation.

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